In the news series

Jewish Family Education with Candace R. Kwiatek, The Dayton Jewish Observer

‘America Is On Track To Literally Die Off,’ New Fertility Data Warns. Fertility rate: ‘Jaw-dropping’ global crash in children being born. Falling birth rates could upend global economy in 20 years. The Birth-Rate Crisis Isn’t as Bad as You’ve Heard — It’s Worse. The tipping point: what happens when deaths outnumber births?

Just decades ago, fears of an impending population explosion gripped the world. During the late 1960s and early 70s, the Zero Population Growth movement frantically urged families to limit themselves to two children to avert environmental catastrophe.

Today, that narrative has completely reversed. Global fertility rates — the average number of children born per woman — have halved since 1950, resulting in concerns over too few children, dominating headlines worldwide.

The U.S. highlights this global baby bust: while Americans’ ideal family size remains high at 2.7, the actual rate has plummeted to a record 1.6, down from over 3.5 in the 1960s.

Consequently, the U.S. is among more than half the world’s countries — representing over 70% of the global population — with fertility rates below the 2.1 replacement level.

The Lancet peer-reviewed medical journal projects that 76% of countries will fall below this threshold by 2050, reaching 97% by 2100, leaving only a handful with sustainable birth rates.

Experts debate the impact: Some cite benefits like a reduced human ecological footprint and improved quality of life, while others warn of geopolitical instability and the existential threat of population collapse.

What is driving this rapid global decline? The consensus points to delayed milestones, economic constraints, and cultural shifts.

As women pursue education and careers, postponed family planning leads to fertility challenges and smaller families.

Meanwhile, crippling financial pressures — skyrocketing childcare costs, housing expenses, student debt, and job insecurity — make having children daunting, making policy incentives like maternity grants and parental leave only marginally effective.

Beneath these factors lies a profound cultural shift toward individualism and leisure.

Combined with accessible contraception, these values have normalized child-free lifestyles.

Furthermore, rapid urbanization, environmental anxiety, and geopolitical instability have created a climate of pessimism, causing many to question the prudence of bringing children into the world.

Yet, this trend is not universal. Israel stands out as a major exception, prompting headlines like Why are there so many children in Israel? Birth rates: Why are Israel’s rising while numbers drop in the West? Demographic Reversal: Israel Chooses Life.

As Times of Israel blogger David Heller noted, “Across the developed world, societies turn away from family. Israel runs toward it.”

This outlier status is driven by a unique blend of law, biology, history, and culture.

Law. At the end of Genesis 1, God said to the newly-formed humans, pru u’rvu (be fruitful and multiply), the first positive commandment in the Torah. Rabbi Tzadok HaKohen of Lublin taught that an idea’s profundity is found in its first scriptural appearance.

By making pru u’rvu — creating and nurturing life — the first Divine message to humankind, God established parenting as the fundamental purpose of life, a worldly purpose that reflects the Divine’s relationship with humanity.

Beyond biological creation, Rabbi Samson Raphael Hirsch framed this mitzvah as a spiritual duty to pass down Jewish values.

This perspective allows those facing infertility — whether medical or circumstantial — to participate in this commandment by producing “positive fruit” through adoption, mentoring, supporting Jewish education, even arranging shidduchim (marriages).

While this obligation traditionally drives high fertility among the religiously observant, a notable shift since the 1990s shows that Israel’s Jewish demographic growth is also propelled by rising birth rates among non-religious Israeli citizens.

Biology. Israel’s fertility is not only exceptional because it is high. Among Israeli Jewish women, there is a direct correlation between the rise of fertility rates and a rise in urbanization, education, and level of income.

At the same time, fertility has been increasing alongside a rise in the age at which women first give birth. From an international perspective, these are extremely unusual patterns.

History. The history of Israel and the Jewish people is characterized by cycles of conflict, displacement, and persecution — culminating in the Holocaust — which have extended into the modern era through wars and continuous security threats.

This context has fostered deep societal resilience and a commitment to national rebuilding.

As sociologist Leo Davids explains, “Israelis are always conscious of the losses we suffered, hence the virtue of bringing new life to rebuild the Jewish people.”

Consequently, Israel serves as a unique test case for the relationship between demography and national security, note researchers Kobi Michael and Ori Wertman, particularly as a small, Jewish democratic state in a region constantly buffeted by fluctuating ethnic-national-religious conflicts.

Cultural prioritization. In Israel, the family is central, generally overshadowing individualism and material goods. High regard for raising children is reinforced by government support, including birth grants, income replacement, and policies designed to help women balance work and family life.

From shopkeepers to bus drivers, people generally have a positive attitude toward children, often looking out for them in public. With parks and playgrounds everywhere, children are free to roam.

“Having children is more than a gift. It’s a responsibility,” Rabbi Jonathan Sacks concluded. “For us as Jews it’s the most sacred responsibility there is. On it depends the future of the Jewish people. For 4,000 years our people survived because in every generation, Jews made it their highest priority.”

What can we learn from Israel and Israelis about this most high priority?

Literature to share

Lions and Scavengers: The True Story of America by Ben Shapiro. Lions and Scavengers is a passionate, easy-to-read allegory that breaks down two competing worldviews. While undeniably polarizing, the analogy offers a sharp look at modern social divides, making it a useful resource for anyone seeking to understand perspectives different from their own in the interest of a more cohesive society.

Right Side Up: Adventures in Chelm by Eric A. Kimmel. Who doesn’t love a good story about Chelm, the town of fools? This illustrated chapter book offers a dozen slightly modernized versions of Chelm classics perfectly retold by a multi-award-winning author for elementary ages.

To read the complete June 2026 Dayton Jewish Observer, click here.